James Cameron is a confident man. Only two living directors can claim films that have netted 11 Oscars, and he would be one with 1997’sTitanic. Cameron has headed up such projects asAliens,twoTerminatormovies, andPiranha II: The Spawning. But his golden goose baby isAvatar, which remains undisputed asthe box office king, coming in at just below $3 billion, which seems incredible for a movie that sees few people who can even recall the characters' names.
Just before the first film was released, Cameron was so confident in its potential to succeed that, as reported byGQ, he told an executive:
“‘I think this movie is going to make all the f***ing money. And when it does, it’s going to be too late for you to love the film. The time for you to love the movie is today. So I’m not asking you to say something that you don’t feel, but just know that I will always know that no matter how complimentary you are about the movie in the future when it makes all the money…’
At that point, that particular studio executive flipped out and went bug shit on me. And I told him to get the f*** out of my office. And that’s where it was left.”
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It seems that he knew before it was even in theaters that what he had on his hands was enough to shatter box office records and potentially put the film out of reach for years to come. The first film opened to a record-breaking $77 million opening weekend which set the tone for the rest of its movie theater run.
Success of Avatar
It’s worth noting that the first movie even managed to repopularize at-home 3D TVs, which were a hot ticket commodity for a little while andsomething Cameron still believes is a thing. So when it comes down toAvatar: The Way of Water, it shouldn’t be overly surprising thatthe prediction numbersare sitting around $150 million for opening weekend, which is of course double what the first one managed to rake in.
Given that bothDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of MadnessandBlack Panther: Wakanda Foreveropened with a respective $187.4 million and $181 million, it seems as if it would be more than possible for anAvatar 2to beat or compete with these figures.
Avatar: The Way of Water and Competitors
This is even more likely when you consider that it won’t have the competition of a Marvel movie or any other major blockbuster film up against it (benefit of all the big franchises owned by the same mouse corp).Babylon,The Whale,and other assorted Oscar-bait films are the only things that are going to be in theaters in December so that should give everyone on vacation plenty of time to see the onebigmovie this month. So if they go to theaters during the holidays,The Way of Waterwill likely end up being the way to go.
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It may even be possible that this film does perform just as well as the first in total return. Remember that the first movie is the only one to make $2 billion on the overseas market. So if it takes $500 million less total overseas, that would still be $1.5 billion-ish with a combined $300 million or so from the U.S. and Canada. This number is based on a doubling of its opening weekend for everyone who hasn’t seen it and the seeming frequency of repeat visits for the firstAvatar.
People will go see this movie because of Cameron’s reputation as a genius filmmaker. It stands to reason it will do phenomenally well. By comparison, take the box office returns of theJurassic Worldmovies.Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdomsits at 47% Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes, but it still managed to rake in over a billion in profits. ThenJurassic World: Dominiondebuted with a 29% score andstill garnered a whopping billion with a B worldwidefor a film largely obsessed with fan service over all else.
