Just two months afterMarvelreleasedAvengers: Age of Ultron, the studio bringsPhase Twoof its massive superhero universe to a close this weekend withAnt-Man. The only other movie it faces is the critically-acclaimed comedyTrainwreck, with last weekend’s winnerMinionseyeing its second straight win. Who will come out on top in this three-waybox officeslugfest? Will it be the minisculeMarvelhero or the promiscuous blonde or those loveable yellow creatures? The smart money this weekend, naturally, is on theAnt-Man.
While it’s still far belowMinions' 4,312-theater rollout,Ant-Manis opening in 3,856 theaters starting today, withTrainwreckopening in 3,157 theaters. Both movies have been received positively by the nation’s critics, withAnt-Mancurrently holding a 73% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes, withTrainwreckat 87% “Fresh.” Naturally, both movies will attract different audiences, but it’s no surprise thatAnt-Manis expected to come out on top, givenMarvel’s box office pedigree. The first 11 MCU movies have opened in the top spot at the box office, dating back to 2008’sIron Man, a trend that will surely continue withAnt-Man, which is tracking in the $60 million to $70 million range.
Trainwreck, which marks the big-screen writing debut for starAmy Schumer, in her first major studio role, is expected to perform well in its opening weekend, providing a comedic alternative to those who aren’t necessarily fans ofsuperhero movies. This new release will be the third R-rated comedy this summer, followingSpy($29 million opening weekend, $104.8 million domestic) andTed 2($33.5 million opening weekend, $74.2 million domestic), both of which suffered significant drops after their opening weekend. WhileTed 2was trashed by critics,Spywas universally beloved, although positive reviews didn’t necessarily turn the comedy into a box office juggernaut. We’ll have to wait and see ifTrainwreckcan reverse the trend of underperforming R-rated comedies this weekend, with the movie expected to take in between $20 million and $30 million. The figure is on par with the first two R-rated comedies this year, but the true test will be to see how much it drops next weekend.
Minionswill likely drop to second place betweenAnt-ManandTrainwreck, between $50 million and $60 million, and there likely won’t be too many significant changes with the rest of the top 10. There are also four critically-acclaimed movies opening in limited release,Mr. Holmes,Irrational Man, The Look of Silence andThe Stanford Prison Experiment.Mr. Holmeshas the “widest” release of these four, opening in 363 theaters, while the rest open in just a handful of theaters. It’s possible thatMr. Holmescould crack the top 10 if it pulls in a strong per-screen average, but most box office prognosticators don’t have this indie drama in their sights, so we’ll have to wait and see how it performs.
With all that being said, is there no question thatAnt-Manwill come out on top? Or do you thinkTrainwreckcan pull off a stunning upset? Check out our projected top 10 movies at the box office this weekend, and let us know what you think of our predictions. Be sure to check back here on Sunday morning when the box office estimates are released, to see how your favorite films fared in theaters over the weekend.
