Can Finding Dory Save the Summer Box Office?

Last weekend,The Conjuring 2put an end to a two-week streak of summer sequels vastly underperforming from their predecessors, taking in $40.3 million to beatWarcraftandNow You See Me 2. It seems that a new trend could be upon us with another highly-anticipated follow-up opening this weekend, Pixar’sFinding Dory, which is on track to post the biggestbox officedebut in Pixar history, while going up against Warner Bros.‘Central Intelligence. If the early projections hold up,Finding Doryis on track to open with $116 million this weekend.

Box Office Mojoreports thatFinding Doryis set to open in an estimated 3,900 theaters, with Warner Bros’Central Intelligenceopening in approximately 3,300 theaters.Finding Dory, which features a star-studdedvoice castincludingEllen DeGeneres,Albert Brooks,Diane Keaton,Eugene Levy,Ty Burrell,Willem Dafoe,Ed O’NeilandIdris Elba, is already a hit with critics, earning an astounding 95% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, although there aren’t enough reviews in yet for a consensus onCentral Intelligence. IfFinding Dorydoes break $116 million, it will surpassToy Story 3’s $110.3 million mark for the biggest debut in Pixar history.

It’s certainly possible that the success ofThe Conjuring 2and the potential record-breaking debut ofFinding Dorycould lead to other follow-ups hitting it big at the box office. Next weekend brings the long-awaitedIndependence Day: Resurgencefrom 20th Century Fox, while the weekend after will mark the debut ofThe Purge: Election Year. However, both of those movies will be going up against some rather stiff competition, withIndependence Day: ResurgencefacingThe Free State of JonesandThe Neon Demon, whileThe Purge: Election YearfacesThe BFG,The Legend of TarzanandThe Shallows.

Finding Doryreunites the friendly-but-forgetful blue tang fish with her loved ones, and everyone learns a few things about the true meaning of family along the way. The all-new big-screen adventure dives into theaters this summer, taking moviegoers back to the extraordinaryunderwater worldfrom the original film. The story takes place six months after the events ofFinding Nemo, with Dory living what appears to be a nice, quiet life swimming amongst the other clown fish. But after setting off with Nemo on a class trip to see manta rays migrate back home, she becomes a bit homesick herself. This leads the forgetful blue tang on a quest to discover where she truly comes from, where she meets a number of new ocean creatures along the way.

Central Intelligenceis expected to debut in a distant second place this weekend with $25.7 million. The story follows a one-time bullied geek, Bob, who grew up to be a lethal CIA agent (Dwayne Johnson), coming home for his high school reunion. Claiming to be on a top-secret case, he enlists the help of former ‘big man on campus,’ Calvin (Kevin Hart), now an accountant who misses his glory days. But before the staid numbers-cruncher realizes what he’s getting into, it’s too late to get out, as his increasingly unpredictable new friend drags him through a world of shoot-outs, double-crosses and espionage that could get them both killed in more ways than Calvin can count. The top 5 will be rounded out byThe Conjuring 2($24.2 million),Warcraft($16.5 million) andNow You See Me 2($12.2 million).

The top 10 will be rounded out byTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows($6.2 million),X-Men: Apocalypse($5.8 million),Me Before You($4.1 million),The Angry Birds Movie($3.3 million) andAlice Through the Looking Glass($2.9 million). Also opening in limited release is The Weinstein Company’s horror-thrillerClown, Magnolia’s action-adventureThe Last King, Film Movement’s documentaryMy Love, Don’t Cross That River, First Run’s documentaryArgentina, Hannover House’s romantic comedyA Remarkable Lifeand Magnolia’s documentaryTickled. It isn’t clear yet if any of these limited release titles have plans to expand in the weeks and months ahead.

Looking ahead to next weekend, 20th Century Fox’s highly-anticipated sequelIndependence Day: Resurgence, STX Entertainment’sThe Free State of Jonesand Broad Green Pictures’The Neon Demon. Also opening in limited release next weekend is Independent’s sci-fi action-thrillerThe Call Up, Sony Pictures Classics’ documentaryEat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words, Argot Pictures' documentaryFrom this Day Forward, The Orchard’sHunt for the Wilderpeople, Strand’s dramatic comedyThe Kind Words, Cohen Media Group’s dramaLes Cowboys, A24’s comedySwiss Army Manand IFC’s documentaryWiener Dog. Be sure to check back on Sunday for the box office estimates, and again on Tuesday for next week’s predictions. Until then, take a look at our projected top 10 for the weekend of June 17.